What "shines" for Moldovan parties in the next parliamentary elections. President with button Decisive year for Moldova

MOSCOW, January 10 - RIA Novosti. Speaker of the Moldovan Parliament Andrian Candu on Wednesday, contrary to the opinion of President Igor Dodon, signed a law banning the broadcast of news programs from the Russian Federation, and also approved the new head of the Foreign Ministry and six other members of the government. Experts believe that, despite the Cabinet’s hardware victory, Dodon is gaining points on the eve of the parliamentary elections, clearly distancing himself from the government, under which the country is not in a very favorable socio-economic situation.

The struggle between the pro-Russian President Dodon and the Moldovan government striving for maximum European integration has been going on for a long time. Based on his authority, the president is trying to squeeze the maximum for Russian-Moldovan relations. However, as Russian political scientists note, these powers are only enough for symbolic steps.

At the end of autumn, the powers of the Moldovan parliament expire, which means that elections to the country's highest legislative body can be held either at the end of 2018 or at the beginning of 2019.

Contrary to the President

In 2017, the head of the Democratic Party of Moldova, which owns the parliamentary majority, Vladimir Plahotniuc, proposed replacing a number of government members. Dodon approved the proposed resignations, but twice refused to appoint new members of the government to vacant positions.

After that, a group of deputies appealed to the Constitutional Court (CC), which temporarily removed Dodon from the appointment of the head of the Foreign Ministry and six more members of the Cabinet, deciding that this decision could be approved by the speaker of parliament or the prime minister.

On Wednesday, Speaker of the Parliament Candu, contrary to the opinion of the President, appointed former Ambassador to Switzerland Tudor Ulyanovski as Foreign Minister. Former Prime Minister Kirill Gaburich has been appointed head of the Ministry of Economy. Iurie Leanca, head of the People's European Party of Moldova, who previously held the post of deputy speaker of parliament, became vice-premier for European integration. Cristina Lesnic became the Deputy Prime Minister for Reintegration, Svetlana Cebotar became the head of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Social Protection, Liviu Volkonovicha became the Minister of Agriculture, Regional Development and the Environment, and Alexandru Tănase, who previously headed the Constitutional Court, became the Minister of Justice.

In addition, despite the position of the president, the speaker of parliament, with the permission of the Constitutional Court, approved a law on amendments and additions to the Code on Television and Radio, which prohibits the broadcasting of news and information and analytical programs from Russia in the republic. Dodon also refused to sign this law.

Previously, the Constitutional Court of Moldova has already made decisions regarding the appointment of an interim acting president for the approval of the Minister of Defense. In particular, on October 20, 2017, the Constitutional Court allowed the speaker of parliament to sign a decree on the appointment of Yevgeny Sturza as Minister of Defense instead of the president.

Dodon's reaction

Dodon himself hastened to declare that the ministers appointed against his will "do not have the necessary legitimacy" and "will take office, being under the presumption of guilt for the order of their appointment, as well as for their actions in the previous governments."

The President noted that in a different political and geopolitical context, the indignation of the people would be justified. "However, at the present time, when there are only a few months left before the parliamentary elections, we need to avoid emotions," he stressed.

According to Dodon, "any social destabilization or unrest can lead to casualties, which will call into question the results of the parliamentary elections, even if they are early."

The pro-presidential Party of Socialists of Moldova (PSRM) announced that at the very first plenary meetings of the spring-summer session of the parliament, the party would initiate a vote of no confidence in the new members of the government, approved, according to parliamentarians, bypassing constitutional norms.

In addition, the socialists came out with a categorical condemnation of "the encroachment of the illegitimate government on the freedom of the citizens of Moldova in obtaining information."

Advantageous position

As the political scientist, director of the Institute of Applied Political Studies Grigory Dobromelov believes, Dodon is in a very advantageous position - on the one hand, he demonstrates to Moscow that he is rigidly opposed to European integration and the current government, on the other hand, he risks practically nothing, since the political weight of his rivals is much less.

According to the expert, for the impeachment procedure, Dodon's opponents, apparently, do not have enough grounds so far - for this there must be sufficiently serious accusations of either treason or serious crimes. At the same time, according to Dobromelov, Dodon's pro-Western opponents "are well aware that in terms of early presidential elections, they also have no chance - they have low ratings."

"Not approving government ministers, showing that the current government is not his government, he is scoring points on the eve of the parliamentary elections, because it is clear that the situation in the economy of Moldova is not very good and, accordingly, the current government is not popular. He is building up the opposition base, showing voters that he is defending their interests," Dobromelov believes.

In turn, the Moldovan political scientist Corneliu Ciurea suggested that the situation when the speaker of parliament or the prime minister would approve certain decisions instead of Dodon could last until the elections.

According to Churi, "some argue that the president should raise a 'wave of protest', but 'this will most likely be a trap for the Moldovan leader.' the possibilities he has."

Director of the Institute for Diplomatic, Political Studies and Security Affairs, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of Moldova Valery Ostalep, answering the question whether the confrontation between the president and the parliamentary majority would continue, noted that it was not so much a dispute between the branches of power, "but about the struggle between politicians to consolidate their electorate".

"Yes, the political players will fight. And it will intensify and take on the character of a large-scale show, because the struggle for power this year is key," the agency's interlocutor added.

Propaganda that doesn't exist

The adoption of the law on the ban on news programs from the Russian Federation, which Dodon also refused to sign, fits into this logic. Despite the obvious anti-Russian coloring, this law practically does not affect anything, since, according to Russian experts, the share of TV channels from the Russian Federation was extremely small in the Moldovan information space. Thus, the legislative act also becomes only a part of a large pre-election PR, Dobromelov believes.

The law on the fight against "foreign propaganda", including allegedly Russian, was adopted by the Moldovan parliament in December 2017 again after the president rejected it. The document prohibits the broadcasting in Moldova of television and radio programs with information, information-analytical, military or political content, which are produced in countries that have not ratified the European Convention on Transfrontier Television. At the same time, the rebroadcasting of entertainment and other programs is allowed.

However, according to Dobromelov, the desire of Moldovan politicians to ban the broadcasting of news and information and analytical programs from Russia will only stimulate pro-Russian sentiments in the republic, since sociological surveys showed that the share of Russian TV channels in the Moldovan information field was already small. As the expert pointed out, according to polls two years ago, Romanian and European television and radio broadcasts account for 55% of the sources of information about events in the country and the world, while Russian television and radio broadcasts account for only 15%.

At the same time, Alexei Chepa, Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on International Affairs (Fair Russia), said that the decision of the Constitutional Court of Moldova on this law "will still affect" Russian-Moldovan relations. "We will have to react in some way," Chepa said.

Parliamentary elections-2018 in Moldova may be held under a new electoral system

The electoral system of Moldova may be changed ahead of the 2018 parliamentary elections. The ruling Democratic Party has proposed moving from a proportional electoral system to voting in single-member districts, RFI reports.

“The Democratic Party will advocate for changing the current electoral system to a single-mandate voting system for the following reasons: firstly, single-mandate voting allows people to directly elect deputies they know, as they elect their mayors (mayors of cities in Moldova - ed.), not on party lists. Secondly, single-member voting allows people to early revoke the mandate of deputies who do not fulfill their duties, and immediately elect others to take their place. Thirdly, single-member voting allows citizens from the diaspora to vote for deputies from their circle. So, the diaspora will have its own deputies in the next parliament,” explained the leader of the party, Vlad Plahotniuc.

However, the Democrats' initiative has already been criticized by observers. According to them, the Democratic Party is trying to solve the problem of its low rating.

President Igor Dodon also called the Democrats' initiative "unacceptable", saying that it "will remain only a wish" of the Democrats. “There will be no single-seat elections. This initiative undermines the democratic foundations of the state. As head of state, I will be categorically against this undemocratic reform, which is designed to destroy the party system in our country,” the head of state summed up.

Moldova in 2018 - the stakes of parliamentary elections are higher than ever

This is the forecast of the head of the Institute for Strategic Initiatives Vladislav Kulminsky. In a commentary for RFI, the expert explained that the election campaign, which is officially due to start in September 2018, will be one of the dirtiest.

Vladislav Kulminsky: “The stakes are very high, because if the Democratic Party loses power in November 2018, then we will surely see attempts by the new government that comes after them to blame the Democrats for all the failures of the Republic of Moldova and hang all the dogs on them. That is, I think that if the Democratic Party loses power, a series of very serious, lengthy and high-profile processes await us, and the new government will unwind them over the next four years, because a lot has accumulated, a lot of things have been done in Moldova bypassing the law. Therefore, for the Democratic Party, the retention of power is a matter of life and death, in fact, for this, the electoral system was changed in 2017 in order to retain power. Not only this is at stake, but a large fortune is at stake. It is no secret that the state institutions of the Republic of Moldova are the main source of income and business for people and companies that earn big money on it.”

Democrats and socialists remain the main political players in Moldova, and the non-systemic pro-European opposition, represented by the leader of the Action and Solidarity Party (PAS) Maia Sandu, as well as the head of the Dignity and Truth (DA) political platform Andrei, will also fight for power in the country. Nestase.

Vladislav Kulminsky: “Of course, these attempts will most certainly be led by the Socialist Party, which, with the support of the Russian Federation, will try to change the government in the Republic of Moldova. Democrats understand that if they lose, the consequences for them will be very difficult. Whether it is the socialists or the center-right coalition (pro-European - RFI), if they come to power, they will not show much pity, because the democrats themselves do not show any pity towards the opposition. The persecution is going on to the maximum extent possible, which, in principle, has hardened Moldovan politics very much - before Moldovan politics was not so fierce. Now the bet in this game is almost a matter of life and death, which is wrong, because politics is one way to translate existential conflicts into a less tragic plane, a more pragmatic plane of problem resolution.”

The main topics of the political pre-election discourse in the new year, according to the expert, will remain the same. Discussions will lead around the age-old questions: “Who are we, Romanians or Moldovans? What language do we speak: Romanian or Moldovan? Who are we with, with Russia or with the West?

Vladislav Kulminsky:“The Democrats will maximally portray the socialists as a party that will drag Moldova into the CU through the back door and reintroduce Russian hegemony here - rather, this will be the political discourse. The socialists, on the other hand, will tell as much as possible that the authorities will take Moldova to NATO, put the country under the heel of Washington. Perhaps they are playing their own game, but, unfortunately, this is very hardening of the electorate. For example, now I don’t see a situation in which President Dodon and his Socialist Party, if they take a majority in parliament, I don’t see how they can govern this country. Because it's so divided and they've made themselves so unacceptable to the centre-right camp that they simply won't be able to promote a coherent policy because they're bound to face street protests and the situation that Mr. Yanukovych once faced in Ukraine. Moldova is a very divided country, here it is necessary to promote Moldovan interests, common to both the right and the left flank, because otherwise you will inevitably get a revolutionary situation.”

The expert emphasizes that the center-right parties are in the same situation, the discourse of which is unacceptable for the other part of society.

Speaking about the prospects for the Transnistrian settlement against the backdrop of an unexpected rapprochement between Chisinau and Tiraspol at the end of 2017, Kulminsky nevertheless noted that progress in the political settlement of the conflict should not be expected.

Vladislav Kulminsky: “I think that in the Pridnestrovian direction, we have already resolved the main issues that could be resolved. It must be understood that all the decisions that have been reached are temporary solutions, that they will certainly be reviewed in the context of the final political settlement. What could be resolved, we resolved rather painlessly, and now the agenda will include issues of the status of a political settlement, a model for settling the Transnistrian conflict, and all these issues are more political. That is, without the involvement of Russia, the European Union, and the United States, Chisinau and Tiraspol will not be able to resolve these issues with each other. There is the question of how this settlement will look like, who will guarantee it, and a lot of painful things. I think that the issue of political settlement will be dealt with more seriously after the parliamentary elections, when it will be clear which coalition will come to power in the Republic of Moldova.”

Recall that in November 2017, Chisinau and Tiraspol resolved the issues of telecommunications and telecommunications, the work of Moldovan schools in Pridnestrovie with education based on the Latin script, the use of farmlands of the inhabitants of the right bank of the Dniester in the Dubossary region, as well as documents on education issued in Pridnestrovie. In addition, Tiraspol unblocked the movement of one of the bridges across the Dniester River, connecting the Balkans with Odessa, Kiev and other areas.

Moldova is on the verge of another political crisis.

In October 2017, Dodon already tried to block the appointment of ministers. Parliament approved it, and the Constitutional Court, at the request of the Democrats, suspended the president himself for a while.

The duties of the head of state then and now were assumed by the speaker of parliament, who signed the presidential decrees on the appointment.

Political check or mock war

"Dodon wanted to put his opponents in political check by rejecting the candidacies of ministers. To avoid this, the Democratic Party invented a tool to temporarily remove him. The Constitutional Court created a precedent, the legitimacy of which is controversial," Dionis Cenusha, an expert at the Moldovan analytical center Expert Group, told Strana. .

Dodon threatens mass street protests. Moreover, Plahotniuc, who really controls both the parliament and the government, is an extremely unpopular politician among the people.

Plahotniuc himself is trying to appear in the eyes of the West as the only person who keeps Moldova from falling under the influence of Russia, which relies on Dodon.

Experts, however, do not believe in the outbreak of the Moldovan Maidan. Moreover, rumors are actively circulating around the country that Plahotniuc and Dodon are playing a coordinated game.

"Plahotniuc and the Democrats are taking advantage of the political crisis in order to continue their agenda, and from time to time hint at Dodon's vulnerability and his failure as president. And Dodon, in turn, enters the image of the victim, also earning his points," says Chenusha.

A decisive year for Moldova

In November 2018, parliamentary elections are to be held in Moldova, which, in theory, should resolve the crisis of power.

"This year promises to be decisive for Moldova. There are prerequisites for the political rise of pro-Russian forces, but this prospect will compete with the attempts of the Democrats to form a ruling coalition with the forces that are now outside the parliament. In particular, with the Action and Solidarity Party of Maia Sandu, ex- Minister of Education and rival of Dodon in the elections," Cenusha said.

Pro-Russian sentiment is on the rise for several reasons. "Many pro-European Moldovans at one time received Romanian passports and left for Europe. There remain those who believe that it is more profitable to be friends with Russia. When the Russian Federation banned the import of wine and agricultural products, this hit many Moldovans," says a member of the board of the Action party and solidarity" Radu Marian.

In addition, the difficult economic situation in the country plays into the hands of the pro-Russian forces, for which many people blame the ruling "pro-European" coalitions.

Two years ago, before Dodon's victory, Moldova experienced a deep political crisis, against which two governments were replaced in the country.

The country was shaken by mass protests against corruption - a billion euros were withdrawn from banks, which was blamed on the then leadership of the country.

There is about a year left until the next parliamentary elections. In this regard, according to some unofficial data, elections in our country will be held in late October - early November 2018. Usually, when there is only a year left before the elections, in general terms, the situation in Moldovan politics becomes more or less clear. At a minimum, it becomes clear who has what chances to get into parliament and gain power. It is these chances of the political parties of Moldova that I would like to consider in this article.

Party of Socialists. According to polls, this party is the most popular in our country. It seems that a mixed electoral system also plays into the hands of this political party, but on the condition that a second round of voting in single-member districts is not introduced, and the current government assures that this will not happen. Still, the PSRM's chances for power are real only if the socialists gain a parliamentary majority on their own. In any other case, the chances will be significantly reduced.

Party "Action and Solidarity". This party continues to be the leader in the list of preferences of the center-right pro-European voters, but the difference between the PDS and the PSRM is quite significant. It is possible that the PDS will become the leader among the center-right parties after the upcoming parliamentary elections, but if it does not enter into an alliance with other pro-European parties, and primarily with the PPDA, it will lose its chances of gaining power. In this case, the PDS will be able to gain power only by creating a pro-European coalition with the PDM. Now the PDS rejects such a course of events, but if in a year the opinion of the PDS changes, then this political union will be the last in the history of this party, because the fate of all PDM partners is well known to everyone.

Democratic Party of Moldova. Along with the change in the electoral system, the PDM's chances for power have increased significantly. With numerous resources, this party will undoubtedly receive a significant number of deputy mandates after the upcoming elections. It can already be said with certainty that the PDM will be a serious, if not the main, contender for power after the parliamentary elections, and the PDM has already proven that in such situations it can extract the maximum benefit for itself.

Dignity and Truth Platform Party (PPDP). It is one of the most active pro-European centre-right parties in Moldova. But this party is being dragged to the bottom by the uncertainty caused by negotiations with the PDS in connection with joint participation in the next parliamentary elections. Every day of delay seriously affects its ratings and chances, and therefore the PPDA should as soon as possible find out all the nuances of cooperation with the PDS, and make a fundamental decision on its further actions.

"Our Party". The chances of this party to get into the next parliament are quite high, because its representatives run the third largest cities in the country. At the same time, in the case of the NP, a lot depends on whether in 2018 the leader of the party, Renato Usatii, will be in the country to take an active part in the promotion of political formations and candidates in single-mandate constituencies.

Communist Party. This party continues to be in a drifting position. If the PCRM does not become active, the next parliamentary elections may be the last swan song for it.

Shor Party. This party continues to "experiment" all offering new and new social innovations at the local level. It is possible that during the election campaign they will become examples of successful initiatives for the party. It will be very interesting to observe the reaction of Moldovan voters to these absolutely new approaches for our country.

Liberal and Liberal Democratic parties. They continue to be in a state of free fall, although things seem to be getting better in the PLDM. It is possible that in single-mandate districts these parties will present small surprises, but according to party lists, they have a chance of success only by uniting with other more popular parties.

The same situation is observed in other parties, such as the European People's Party of Moldova, the National Unity Party, the National Liberal Party, the People's Party of the Republic of Moldova, etc.

This is approximately the general picture in the political arena of the Republic of Moldova a year before the parliamentary elections. Let's see if this situation will change during this year, which is left before the start of the election campaign.